发新话题
打印【有60个人次参与评价】

[大势] 每日发布机构增、减仓前50名(12月21日已更新)

回复 49#过路人 的帖子

祝福你我投资路上一路发! .

TOP

引用:
原帖由 过路人 于 2007-11-22 09:17 发表 \"\"

今天是西方的感恩节!感谢上苍让我们相识在这里,但愿我们大家成为投资路上的好朋友,祝福你我投资路上一路发!
谢谢老师了,你的无私真让人感动。.

TOP

回复 46#过路人 的帖子

开盘买了一点点,过能补的钱也不多。
也祝老师们,祝大家感恩节快乐。.

TOP

.

TOP

回复 49#过路人 的帖子
非常感谢过路人的提醒,目前在摊溥股本成本中,但是再摊薄也比均价贵 ,我老是犯买进时冲动买,不是最佳买入价格,然后就在后悔中,不断买进想摊薄成本.卖时犹豫不绝,错时良机,等下决定卖时发现已赢利不多. .

TOP

22日数据更新在1楼

算这次调整的支撑位:

  6005.13 - ( ( 6124.04 - 5462.01 ) * 1.618 ) = 4933.965

  现在说啥都没用了,静观其变吧!

有些人对这些不屑一顾,我也只打算让屑一顾的人看的。
我只是坚持做我自己的事情,这是我做人的原则,不管是风雨雷暴还是艳阳高照
所以我的人缘好,朋友不少
可见过面的不多

23日早盘不要轻易行动,也许卖出的是割肉,买进的还会被套,最好观望。收市前可能解放军小分队会进城试探。
留到下周吧。当我算命也好,真正的杀跌也许会出现在下周一早盘,我在局势不明朗前不会动的。

对于我最后公开说过的中石油,下周会到39-40之间坚决抛出,回到30才能再凸显其投资价值。
我PF的是目前一直空仓的,那才是真正的价值投资者
我不是
但我年轻,还有资本经历

[ 本帖最后由 过路人 于 2007-11-23 00:31 编辑 ].

TOP

老师,这么晚了,还不休息呀?.

TOP

按这样测算,是不是明天跌幅不大了?

我好希望这样哦。因为米在今天都补得差不多了。.

TOP

引用:
原帖由 过路人 于 2007-11-23 00:01 发表 \"\"
算这次调整的支撑位:

  6005.13 - ( ( 6124.04 - 5462.01 ) * 1.618 ) = 4933.965

  现在说啥都没用了,静观其变吧!

有些人对这些不屑一顾,我也只打算让屑一顾的人看的。
我只是坚持做我自己的事情 ...
.

TOP

看今天了,怎么能做到手中有股,心中无呢。.

TOP

引用:
原帖由 过路人 于 2007-11-23 00:01 发表 \"\"
算这次调整的支撑位:

  6005.13 - ( ( 6124.04 - 5462.01 ) * 1.618 ) = 4933.965

  现在说啥都没用了,静观其变吧!

有些人对这些不屑一顾,我也只打算让屑一顾的人看的。
我只是坚持做我自己的事情 ...
其实,你的观点跟其它的老师是差不多的,只是他们看的比较宏观,你看得比较细,是具体到什么点位,什么时间。在股市中时间长了以后你会发现,这个点位和时间是很难把握的,全世界到现在都没有出过一个靠把握点位和时间而出名的股神,所以我们其实只要抓住大方向就可以了。

我不是要和你抬扛奥,只是有些想法提出来和你探讨。.

TOP

回复 56#过路人 的帖子

w我支持你,我的观点比你还悲观,我给你短信里已经说了。.

TOP

回复 61#宇泽妈 的帖子

其实我很想拉路人老师宏观一点,但老觉得我不够劝说他的能力,所以就只好自己说自己的。说句不怕他生气的话,可能他自负了点,其实自负不是缺点,但有时候会觉得累,会吃力不讨好,我是真心话,路人老师的粉丝可不要把我咂扁。.

TOP

11月23日资金报表在1楼

引用:
原帖由 小猪爸爸 于 2007-11-23 09:22 发表 \"\"
其实我很想拉路人老师宏观一点,但老觉得我不够劝说他的能力,所以就只好自己说自己的。说句不怕他生气的话,可能他自负了点,其实自负不是缺点,但有时候会觉得累,会吃力不讨好,我是真心话,路人老师的粉丝可不要 ...
岂能尽如人意,但求无愧我心
是我做事的准则

“只有真心为你好的人,才会想改变你”
是我为人的标准
谢谢猪爸不遗余力的劝诫,还有和宇泽妈的提醒

[ 本帖最后由 过路人 于 2007-11-24 22:54 编辑 ].

TOP

引用:
原帖由 过路人 于 2007-11-23 00:01 发表 \"\"
算这次调整的支撑位:

  6005.13 - ( ( 6124.04 - 5462.01 ) * 1.618 ) = 4933.965

  现在说啥都没用了,静观其变吧!

有些人对这些不屑一顾,我也只打算让屑一顾的人看的。
我只是坚持做我自己的事情 ...
我是刚做的测算,因为,周五我的网络坏了,没法看电脑,我同意你的观点,但数字上比你还悲观,但也有好的观点,
用黄金分割法,以5。30的地点算起要跌倒4780左右,估计这个点位下周基本上会去碰的,因为,周五的周K线收的不理想,留了一段下引线,这根引线是一定会被擦掉的,所以下周会出现两种情况,A.再开根阴线,一直跌倒4780左右止跌(仅指下周)开始横盘;B.有一次的低开在4780左右,然后,慢慢的向上涨,到周四或周五再次下跌,造成一个带上长引线的小阳体的射击之星,如果是这种状态可暂时的认为见底信号,所以,我也同意周一会低开,真这样后几周会好看点;
A、B是较为理想的观点,最坏的观点是,用黄金分割法,以本轮大盘启动点位算起,第一下降位置在4183,这就很可怕了,但话又说回来了,真要跌到这个点位还真的不难,对于这个点位现在就不讨论了,先看4780的位置结果如何吧。
另我想说一点,宇泽妈和小猪爸爸的观点也有到了,你从技术面谈论了趋势的问题,我也喜欢技术面看问题,他们却希望从宏观和基本面谈趋势的问题,实际从这两个方面看到的趋势的结果是一样的,只是一个对转折点数字化点,一个模糊点,结果是一样的,这两种理论有两个人最具代表性就是索罗斯和巴菲特,他们就是技术面和价值投资的代表,也就是说明了技术面的投机和价值投资是同样能成功的,和盈利的,只要你能够成为任何一方面的专家,你就有成功的机会,由此让我想起看过的金庸的小说《笑傲江湖》中华山派的剑法,一种以招式的复杂演变立足,一种以精湛的内功成名,实际他们的目的也就一个,好听点强身健体,扶弱除强,难听的就是谁杀人的本领最强,谁就是霸主和赢家,在股市里想赢的话也是如此。
三位如果说错了什么,或有话无意中得罪,请多多包含。.

TOP

股市里面,投资、投机还是理财,是个问题!股市,是人生的缩影,性格决定了你的财富

记得去年下半年开始买入基金和股票的时候,涨个15%就开心死了,马上卖掉,生怕跌下来;后来慢慢的,收益率越来越高,心理期望值也越来越高,到后来,变成不翻番都不好意思说出口了。这个正常吗?当然不正常。其实每个人都知道不正常,可是每个人都希望自己能够吃到更多的天上掉下来的饼

现在大盘从6100点跌到4900点,多吗?看起来很多,可是怎么不看1400点你进来的时候到现在涨了多少?现在大跌,是可以冷静下来思考的时候了,不思考,不回顾,就不会有发展。

投资、投机,还是理财,这是进入股市的前提,这个定位,决定了你的操作思路。若是理财,每年10%足矣;若是投资,15%-20%足矣!若是投机...呵呵,当然永无止境!永不满足

永不满足的后果呢,很简单,“出来混,迟早要还的”。

我们应该感谢之前的股市,起码它让我们得到了超出预期很高的投资和理财收益;我们更应该感谢目前的股市,它让投机得到了警示和惩戒。这就是股市,一把双刃剑,看你是去尝试握住剑柄还是剑尖。

目前的股市,有人说要跌到4000点、3000点,甚至更低,我不知道基于何种考虑?其实很简单,你去看看大盘上次在5000点的时候,舆论是什么腔调,然后再看看现在的腔调,就会充分明白什么是市场的险恶

不要多说了,祝进入股市的人们都不要赚了钱却受伤,或者因为受伤而不去赚钱。

股市,是人生的缩影,性格决定了你的财富.

TOP

回复 66#过路人 的帖子

哈哈,两个夜猫子,我们属同路人.

TOP

请问路人老师,为什么有许多每天显示增仓的股票却一直在跌,而显示减仓的股票有时候还一直在涨?.

TOP

http://www.panlv.com/?fromuid=96098 ,看这个就可以了。每日资金流入流出都有的。.

TOP

上幼儿园的股民,感谢老师的指导,引路.除了感谢还是感谢..

TOP

全天冲高回落

[ 本帖最后由 过路人 于 2007-11-26 09:39 编辑 ].

TOP

引用:
原帖由 lotuszhu 于 2007-11-25 15:37 发表 \"\"
请问路人老师,为什么有许多每天显示增仓的股票却一直在跌,而显示减仓的股票有时候还一直在涨?
同问.

TOP

引用:
原帖由 过路人 于 2007-11-24 22:49 发表 \"\"


岂能尽如人意,但求无愧我心
是我做事的准则

“只有真心为你好的人,才会想改变你”
是我为人的标准
谢谢猪爸不遗余力的劝诫,还有和宇泽妈的提醒
真心为你好的人,才会想改变你. 说得真好,就像在教育自己小孩子时,为他的小毛小病会生气,会伤神,会想要改变他,但是对别家的小孩就会宽以待人..

TOP

进来支持一把

目前我还空仓,不知道什么时候进,不知道什么时候买什么。
每天来向老师学习.

TOP

打新股或者买FOF,是个问题

引用:
原帖由 悦悦宝宝 于 2007-11-26 09:53 发表 \"\"
进来支持一把

目前我还空仓,不知道什么时候进,不知道什么时候买什么。
每天来向老师学习
大盘不好玩,今天先收工。啥时大跌再来拣皮夹子。.

TOP

赶快学习什么是FOF

FOF号称“基金中的基金”主要有以下特点:

FoF与其它基金风险性相对较小
  投资风险是每一个投资者最关心的问题,对于新基民来说,面对市场上几百种差别不小的基金,个人挑选的难度和风险都不小,而为了规避风险,总想什么类型的基金都买一点。某资深理财师说:FoF实际上就是帮助投资者一次买“一篮子基金”的基金,通过专家二次精选基金,有效降低非系统风险的特点。

  挑选单只基金的风险高和难度大,而FoF通过对基金的组合投资,则大幅度降低了投资基金的风险。FoF将自己的投资人群锁定在风险偏好较低者这一行列,也显示了其相对于基金的稳定性。

FoF比其它基金收益率稍低
  尽管推出FoF的券商都声称自己的产品是有“费用省,收益高”的特点,由于FoF在投资基金中不可能全部投资股票型基金,需要配置一定的货币或者债券型基金,收益肯定没有股票型基金的收益高,尤其是在牛市。专业人士认为,如果你具有专业的眼光,或者身边有可靠的投资专家指点,在市场行情持续看好的情况下,大可不必太过谨慎。基金是长期投资产品,今年的收益率虽然无法和去年相比,但是投资股票型基金的盈利几率从理论上讲还是会高于相对保守的FoF。

FoF与其它基金在购买赎回方式的不同
  FoF和基金的差别,理财师指出:FoF的起购金额基本上都是10万,而基金却只需要1000元甚至更少。除了起购金额方面的高门槛,FoF还有一个不足就是开放期不是每天,而是根据不同的券商,有的是一个季度开放一周,有的是一个星期开放一日,其他的时间就无法买卖。而基金则不同,只要不是处于封闭期的新基金,一般来说每天都可以进行交易。

FoF比其它基金在手续费上的不同
  和基金相比,FoF在手续费上的不同在于,因FoF的投资产品是基金,只要是基金有的手续费它也无法避免,所以刚刚提到的费率其实是在基金手续费基础上的二次收费,简单地说,就是投资FOF会付出双重费用。

  虽与基金相比,FoF没有多大的优势,不过,FoF是投资新手和无暇打理投资组合的投资者首选的理财产品。FoF与开放式基金最大的区别在于基金中的基金是以基金为投资标的,而基金是以股票、债券等有价证券为投资标的。它通过专业机构对基金进行筛选,帮助投资者优化基金投资效果。.

TOP

我都是在减仓股中找,呵呵,不要以为增仓就会涨,就算要涨也不是现在,而是等你已经记不起来时。.

TOP

己所不欲,勿施于人(转个宏观的东东,自己颇有感触)

货币博弈:美元“螳螂捕蝉”欧元“黄雀”在后  
文章来源:第一财经日报 日期:2007年11月26日 02:22 http://www.china-cbn.com  

  “人民币大幅升值”将重创中美共同利益
 
张庭宾 
 
  无论是美元、人民币还是日元,谁如果继续低估欧元实力及其背后的战略智慧,谁将在不远的将来付出惨痛的代价。 

  昨天,欧盟的贸易代表曼德尔森已抵达北京,准备施压人民币大幅升值。12月的北京,同样的话题将在中美之间展开。

  今年以来,人民币汇率正遭遇美元贬值和欧元升值的上下“撕裂”。人民币兑美元已经升值5.51%,但欧元兑美元升值了12.1%,换言之,人民币兑欧元贬值了6.24%。

  依照所谓的“经典”理论:本币升值国内紧缩,那欧洲经济“理所应当”是受害者——经济增长将放缓,将降低国内通货膨胀率等。

  可这种理论再次撞上了“南墙”。从2002年初以来,欧元兑美元汇率升值约74.5%,欧元区经济增长率反而从2002初单月的1.0%左右上涨到2006年的2.8%,CPI则在1.6%~2.6%间良性徘徊。面对近六年的本币升值“紧缩”压力,眼下欧洲央行没一点降息的意思。恰恰相反!倒是美元开始降息,在本月20日发表的报告中,美联储将2008年的经济增长预期调低到1.8%~2.5%。

  这足以再一次让 “本币升值国内紧缩”论很难堪。对这种“经典”理论“毁灭性”打击发生在10多年前:1985年,日本被逼签署城下之盟——“广场协议”后,日元兑美元一度升值80%,全球热钱疯狂投机日本,日经指数最高上涨了207%,日本楼价扶摇直上,并带动通胀上升,最后惨遭金融危机,迄今难以摆脱噩梦。尽管如此,最近国内一份“权威”报告仍坚称:“经济学的理论分析和各国的实践均表明,本币升值有利于抑制国内通货膨胀。”

  世界已经深刻变化,笔者曾多次强调,在跨国公司将制造车间由欧美向中国转移、中国成为“世界工厂”后,贸易顺差只会不断增加,更准确地说,承接这种制造能力的国家,其贸易顺差必定不断增加,除非欧美各国再把工厂搬回去。

  那么,既然人民币升值不能减少美、欧的贸易逆差,为什么它们却乐此不疲?原因有两个:

  一、打击中国“世界工厂”与欧美销售商的议价能力。倘若人民币不断和大幅升值,“世界工厂”的竞争力将由“铁板一块”变成铝的,铝的再变成塑料的,塑料的再变成冰的,再加上相关的反倾销和特保等,将不断侵蚀中国制造的利润,中国制造难以形成优势企业,与欧美销售商进行平等议价,赢得合理回报。这样中国廉价劳工就必须永远为欧美经济没完没了地服苦役。

  二、更具杀伤力的目的是,通过人民币大幅升值和不断加息,使得全球热钱投机中国,诱发国内流动性严重过剩,资产价格飞涨,并在泡沫顶峰时再做空中国,重演日本式金融危机。

  与当年日本不同的是,“人民币先大幅升值再大幅贬值”的危机,其受益者已经不再是美元,而很可能是欧元。

  打个比方,如果说货币之间的博弈是 “螳螂捕蝉”的话,在过去几十年中,美元总是扮演“螳螂”的角色,英镑、日元、新台币、泰铢、巴西雷亚尔、墨西哥比索等,它们都是失败的“蝉”。只是现在,在美元“螳螂”试图捕猎“人民币”时,欧元已经成为美元背后的“黄雀”。

  自欧元诞生以来,欧洲经济持续稳定增长,兑美元不断升值,原来美元一统天下的国际储备货币格局被打破,目前欧元已从美元处抢夺了约30%的市场份额,国际资本有加速投奔欧元阵营的趋势。

  美元几乎一边倒的颓势,根子何在?

  在货币抵押物的战略选择上!欧洲人明智地选择了“黄金”——这也是美国人自食其果,他们曾在黄金上暗算过欧洲,交了学费的欧洲人明白了,只有黄金最可靠,并不断增加黄金储备,至今其官方和民间的储备量已远远超过美国。

  与此相反,美元非常错误地选择了“石油”。与“黄金欧元”相比,“石油美元”太昂贵了。欧洲人购买黄金,即使按800美元/盎司计算,购买1000吨黄金也就约257.2亿美元。但美国人为控制石油付出上万亿美元的巨额战争成本,从伊拉克到伊朗越来越像无底洞。更糟糕的是,石油战争会导致石油价格暴涨,美元未受其利先受其害。而在欧元兑美元大幅上涨的情况下,欧洲人因石油涨价而受到的损伤要小得多。

  人民币兑美元加速升值正成为资本逃离美元区的新动力。在美元战略抵押物石油已成无底洞时,人民币升值意味着其商品购买力开始真正贬值。尽管每升值10%,美国将从中国减免约1000亿美元的真实债务,但假定现有美元资产50万亿的话,如美元兑欧元、人民币每贬值1%,资本从美元区逃离0.5%的话,那就会使美元区减少2500亿美元的流动性,如果再乘上对冲基金常规的4倍杠杆的话,就是10000亿美元,那么,因次债危机而岌岌可危的美元流动链条随时可能彻底绷断。

  理智的美元再别向中国转嫁危机了。笔者判断,由于人民币目前升值仍有限,况且“主动性、渐进性和可控性”三原则不可动摇,加上中国有大量的国有资产可以减持,在中国资产泡沫破灭之前,美元金融体系一定会先行崩溃。

  近期,欧洲的个别领导人表面上是渲染欧美的共同价值观,客观上在分化中美的共同战略利益,不排除意在掩盖欧元在货币争霸中对美元的压倒优势——力促人民币大幅升值,进一步抽空美元的竞争力,只会强化这种优势。

  是美元该清醒的时候了!“螳螂”和“蝉”为什么不团结起来,一起对抗“黄雀”呢?

  (作者为本报副总编,文章代表个人观点).

TOP

一楼更新了数据,还有自己在看的一篇“小说”

判断市场转暖的信号K线
对行情的判断,较为保守的做法可观察周K线的变化,因为在周K线上,受诱多诱空走势影响的几率与日线相比都大为降低,其较高的稳定性与安全性,使得做判断出错的可能性在降低。对周K线的研判,第一点也是最重要的一点,在周K线创出阶段性低点之后,随后出现的至少3周以上的盘整,周K线不能再出现破位创新低走势。998点启动的行情,在见到998点之后,周K线盘整5周未见新低。530调整见3404点,随后4周盘整行情未见新低。



均线
对均线系统很多投资者都会知道一二,市场的转暖信号,在均线上需要金叉出现,短期均线上穿长期均线。在这里需要提一点,均线上穿形成金叉的同时,最理想的状态就是在日K线上也予以配合。当发出金叉信号的同时,日K线能有强势的大阳出现,均线与日K线相互配合,相得益彰,判断的可靠性将大为提高。



成交量
在目前单边做多市场中,推高股指需要量能的配合。对于市场不断上移的平均持股成本,成交量必须是持续放大,这也是做多信心的表现之一。而成交量的考察,也希望投资者多看看周K线上的变化,道理与观察K线一样,因为时间跨度大,受市场波动影响小,其判断的准备性安全性都会提高。而月K线上的判断则对偏好长线投资者特别适合。



板块热点
这点大家都能理解,没有持续性的热点,想让行情转暖简直就是天方夜谭。这里提到的热点,是那些有主流资金关照,机构介入程度较深,运做时间长,涨幅惊人的牛市中的主流板块。比如06年上半年的有色板块,06年下半年的金融地产等都属于这样的牛市中的主流板块。只有市场中出现了这样的主流板块,对判断市场是否转暖意思重大。.

TOP

谢了,看了,辛苦了!.

TOP

.

TOP

如何在尾盘杀跌时选好股,27日数据已更新在1楼

急速下跌时分时图下无量能瞬间放大,表示抄底或承接盘不多,还要继续跌。
急跌瞬间暴大量一般分时会拐头,这个时候好买股,如果是尾盘这样更好,急跌时恐慌盘能杀出非常好的价钱。

具体看600508上海能源的11月13日,22日分时走势,大盘尾盘急跌,该股跟随快速下探,分时图显示量能急速放大,有大资金买入,则跟随买入,第二天随便获利5或者6点。

[ 本帖最后由 过路人 于 2007-11-27 23:28 编辑 ].

TOP

回复 82#过路人 的帖子

这只股票我做过,3月份9元左右买的,我和一些朋友说好守到年底看30元,可到5月中旬就全溜,就剩我一守到19元左右坚持不住也跑了,虽然,没套在5.30,也没赶上40元,丢人了,当时被人说一句还骑着黑马找黑马。.

TOP

引用:
原帖由 apple5968 于 2007-11-27 23:00 发表 \"\"
这只股票我做过,3月份9元左右买的,我和一些朋友说好守到年底看30元,可到5月中旬就全溜,就剩我一守到19元左右坚持不住也跑了,虽然,没套在5.30,也没赶上40元,丢人了,当时被人说一句还骑着黑马找黑马。
票票基本面很好,就是最近机构换仓震荡挺大的.

TOP

11月28日数据已更新,希望我能坚持下来

增仓票票不一定涨,但未来一定比较安全
减仓票票不一定跌,但未来可能会有危险.

TOP

谢谢老师!.

TOP

希望老师能坚持下来  或者有什么我们能做的  帮你分担.

TOP

回复

谢谢,现学习、观望,再投资.

TOP

11月29日数据更新

炒股实际上是一种博弈,每一个赢钱的人他的钱都是从输钱的人口袋里掏出来的。

2/8法则永远有效,在股市能生存的人永远只有20%。每一个人都试图看清楚超级主力手里的牌,而超级主力也在试图看清楚大散户和小散户手里的牌。双方都在同一个游戏规则的约束下面,只是超级主力手里的大牌多,筐牌多。散户手里的大牌少,却比较顺。

在行情重要的底部和顶部,超级主力经常不按常规出牌,以前每个周四都是下跌,之前散户高手们判断的这个线那个线的支撑,超级主力都给你击穿,看你慌不慌。散户高手们虽然知道技术上一定要大幅反弹了,但说错几次以后就不敢乱说了,但就在大家不敢判断的时候,中阳线就在今天出现了。理论上实际上也很合理。

大盘分析和预测是一件吃力不讨好的事情,分析对了,有人说看的真准啊,分析错了让别人套了,一些人就开始说怪话了。分析错了我们本来就有歉疚,虽然我们反复提醒只是个人观点。更不必说自己也被套了,钱也一样要损失的。

散户高手和超级主力博弈,关键顶底阶段基本都是输的。因为散户高手要把自己的分析摆在别人面前,告诉超级主力的操盘手,你看我认为你可能这样出牌,你如果这样出,我就那样出。如果你那样出,我就这样出。这样打牌不输才怪。当然,不是关键的时候,超级主力也让散户高手赚点小钱。另外超级主力只有1个,散户高手有几百个。因此大多数时候大部分散户高手都是对的,在重要的顶部的底部的时候,只有极少数散户高手能看对。因为超级主力目的就是要让大多数人出错。因此朋友们以后在重要的顶底,欢迎大家把散户高手们当反向指标。

我现在越来越厌倦大盘分析这件事,有朋友说我现在的分析越来越简单了,以前我还喜欢说说走势,点位。现在我可能就说趋势。我确实不太想愿意继续这个大盘分析了,我有一位高手朋友曾经对我说,干他们这行的,注定要在寂寞和孤独中度过,做一个少数派。太接近大众就容易失去冷静,从而导致判断力的降低。

不管后市如何,请大家对自己口袋的钞票负责。

[ 本帖最后由 过路人 于 2007-11-29 23:00 编辑 ].

TOP

谢谢路人!.

TOP

回复 89#过路人 的帖子

我还是要看你的解盘分析,这是一绝。.

TOP

引用:
原帖由 高兴 于 2007-11-30 09:09 发表 \"\"
我还是要看你的解盘分析,这是一绝。
.

TOP

路人还是改名字吧,那怕叫'暂住证'也好,呵呵.这样大家就放心多了..

TOP

暂住证 .

TOP

11月30日数据更新

今天是周末,也是十一月末的最后一天,转眼就要进入今年的最后一个月份-----12月了。11月可以说是最糟糕的一个月,走势一直颓势难改,由于下周一是12月的第一个交易日,期待能够来个新的开门红。
总体而言,在半年线和5000点这样的技术关口,大资金并没有组织起应有的反攻,走势比想象中的糟糕,目前由于主力资金的退出和进入没有同步,因此抛压显得比较沉重,大资金永远是在政策的配合下以拯救市场为使命来进场的,大家可以回顾每一阶段的特征。底部的探明非一两天,因此要有耐心,时机时刻都有,关键是,时机来临时,手头要有弹药。.

TOP

引用:
原帖由 过路人 于 2007-11-29 22:42 发表 \"\"
炒股实际上是一种博弈,每一个赢钱的人他的钱都是从输钱的人口袋里掏出来的。

2/8法则永远有效,在股市能生存的人永远只有20%。每一个人都试图看清楚超级主力手里的牌,而超级主力也在试图看清楚大散户和小散户手 ...
只要是说出自己经过冷静、认真分析得出的结果(不是冲动得出的)就无愧于心了,至于对错由市场来检验。谁液不是神,每次都对。一句话,股市有风险,买者自负。.

TOP

沪市历史12月走势统计

1990年12月开盘96.05、收盘127.61,涨幅32.85%

1991年12月开盘261.77、收盘292.75,涨幅12.77%

1992年12月开盘718.99、收盘780.39,涨幅7.70%


1993年12月开盘993.67、收盘833.80,跌幅15.34%

1994年12月开盘684.02、收盘647.87,跌幅5.23%

1995年12月开盘631.54、收盘555.28,跌幅13.39%

1996年12月开盘1056.68、收盘917.02,跌幅11.22%


1997年12月开盘1137.58、收盘1194.08,涨幅4.78%

1998年12月开盘1294.01、收盘1146.70,跌幅8.07%

1999年12月开盘1434.98、收盘1366.58,跌幅4.63%


2000年12月开盘2073.09、收盘2073.48,涨幅0.14%

2001年12月开盘1751.05、收盘1645.97,跌幅5.84%

2002年12月开盘1432.03、收盘1357.65,跌幅5.34%


2003年12月开盘1398.71、收盘1497.04,涨幅7.14%

2004年12月开盘1340.92、收盘1266.50,跌幅5.54%

2005年12月开盘1098.78、收盘1161.06,涨幅5.62%

2006年12月开盘2160.30、收盘2675.47,涨幅27.45%



2007年12月开盘4???、收盘????

仅供参考!!.

TOP

引用:
原帖由 过路人 于 2007-11-18 22:57 发表 \"\"

这是单笔资金大于200W的资金流向,能说明一些主力资金的行为。
在目前这种成交量的市道,也许只有从资金流向还能抓住一丝方向了吧。
上周五数据已更新在一楼。
这个资金流向数据比较有用,特地查了有关的内容,原来是这样的:

关于大单定义标准:
每笔成交金额大于100万元人民币 或 每笔成交量大于500手并且成交金额大于70万人民币

谢谢LZ提供的信息,我是新手,请LZ多指教!.

TOP

12月3日数据更新

Part One

It was morning, and the new sun sparkled gold across the ripples of a gentle sea.

A mile from shore a Fishing boat chummed the water and the word for Breakfast Flock flashed through the air, till a crowd of a thousand seagulls came to dodge and fight for bits of food. It was another busy day beginning.

But way off alone, out by himself beyond boat and shore, Jonathan Livingston Seagull was practicing. A hundred feet in the sky he lowered his webbed feet, lifted his beak, and strained to old a painful hard twisting curve through his wings. The curve meant that he would fly slowly, and now he slowed until the wind was a whisper in his face,  until the ocean stood still beneath him. He narrowed his eyes in fierce concentration, held his breath, forced one... single... more... inch... of... curve... Then his featliers ruffled, he stalled and fell.

Seagulls, as you know, never falter, never stall. To stall in the air is for them disgrace and it is dishonor.

But Jonathan Livingston Seagull, unashamed, stretching his wings again in that trembling hard curve - slowing,  slowing, and stalling once more - was no ordinary bird.

Most gulls don’t bother to learn more than the simplest facts of flight - how to get from shore to food and back again. For most gulls, it is not flying that matters, but eating. For this gull, though, it was not eating that mattered, but flight. More than anything else. Jonathan Livingston Seagull loved to fly.

This kind of thinking, he found, is not the way to make one’s self popular with other birds. Even his parents were dismayed as Jonathan spent whole days alone, making hundreds of low-level glides, experimenting.

He didn’t know why, for instance, but when he flew at altitudes less than half his wingspan above the water, he could stay in the air longer, with less effort. His glides ended not with the usual feet-down splash into the sea, but with a long flat wake as he touched the surface with his feet tightly streamlined against his body. When he began sliding in to feet-up landings on the beach, then pacing the length of his slide in the sand, his parents were very much dismayed indeed.

“Why, Jon, why?” his mother asked. “Why is it so hard to be like the rest of the flock, Jon? Why can’t you leave low flying to the pelicans, the albatross? Why don’t you eat? Son, you’re bone and feathers!”

“I don’t mind being bone and feathers mom. I just want to know what I can do in the air and what I can’t, that’s all. I  just want to know.”

“See here Jonathan “ said his father not unkindly. “Winter isn’t far away. Boats will be few and the surface fish will be swimming deep. If you must study, then study food, and how to get it. This flying Business is all very well, but you can’t eat a glide, you know. Don’t you forget that the reason you fly is to eat.”

Jonathan nodded obediently. For the next few days he tried to behave like the other gulls; he really tried, screeching and fighting with the flock around the piers and Fishing boats, diving on scraps of fish and bread. But he couldn’t make it work.

It’s all so pointless, he thought, deliberately dropping a hard-won anchovy to a hungry old gull chasing him. I could be spending all this time learning to fly. There’s so much to learn!

It wasn’t long before Jonathan Gull was off by himself again, far out at sea, hungry, happy, learning.

The subject was speed, and in a week’s practice he learned more about speed than the fastest gull alive.

From a thousand feet, flapping his wings as hard as he could, he pushed over into a blazing steep dive toward the waves, and learned why seagulls don’t make blazing steep power-dives. In just six seconds he was moving seventy miles per hour, the speed at which one’s wing goes unstable on the upstroke.

Time after time it happened. Careful as he was, working at the very peak of his ability, he lost control at high speed.

Climb to a thousand feet. Full power straight ahead first, then push over, flapping, to a vertical dive. Then, every time, his left wing stalled on an upstroke, he’d roll violently left, stall his right wing recovering, and flick like fire into a wild tumbling spin to the right.

He couldn’t be careful enough on that upstroke. Ten times he tried, and all ten times, as he passed through seventy miles per hour, he burst into a churning mass of feathers, out of control, crashing down into the water.

The key, he thought at last, dripping wet, must be to hold the wings still at high speeds - to flap up to fifty and then hold the wings still.

From two thousand feet he tried again, rolling into his dive, beak straight down, wings full out and stable from the moment he passed fifty miles per hour. It took tremendous strength, but it worked. In ten seconds he had blurred through ninety miles per hour. Jonathan had set a world speed record for seagulls!

But victory was short-lived. The instant he began his pullout, the instant he changed the angle of his wings, he snapped into that same terrible uncontrolled disaster, and at ninety miles per hour it hit him like dynamite. Jonathan Seagull exploded in midair and smashed down into a brickhard sea.

When he came to, it was well after dark, and he floated in moonlight on the surface of the ocean. His wings were ragged bars of lead, but the weight of failure was even heavier on his back. He wished, feebly, that the weight could be just enough to drug him gently down to the bottom, and end it all.

As he sank low in the water, a strange hollow voice sounded within him. There’s no way around it. I am a seagull. I am limited by my nature. If I were meant to learn so much about flying, I’d have charts for brains. If I were meant to fly at speed, I’d have a falcon’s short wings, and live on mice instead of fish. My father was right. I must forget this foolishness. I must fly Home to the Flock and be content as I am, as a poor limited seagull.

The voice faded, and Jonathan agreed. The place for a seagull at night is on shore, and from this moment forth, he vowed, he would be a normal gull. It would make everyone happier.

He pushed wearily away from the dark water and flew toward the land, grateful for what he had learned about work- saving low-altitude flying.

But no, he thought. I am done with the way I was, I am done with everything I learned. I am a seagull like every other seagull, and I will fly like one. So he climbed painfully to a hundred feet and flapped his wings harder, pressing for shore.

He felt better for his decision to be just another one of the Flock. There would be no ties now to the force that had driven him to learn, there would be no more challenge and no more failure. And it was pretty, just to stop thinking, and fly through the dark, toward the lights above the beach.

Dark! The hollow voice cracked in alarm. Seagulls never fly in the dark!

Jonathan was not alert to listen. It’s pretty, he thought. The moon and the lights twinkling on the water, throwing out little beacon-trails through the night, and all so peaceful and still...

Get down! Seagulls never fly in the dark! If you were meant to fly in the dark, you’d have the eyes of an owl! You’d have charts for brains! You’d have a falcon’s short wings!

There in the night, a hundred feet in the air, Jonathan Livingston Seagull - blinked. His pain, his resolutions, vanished.

Short wings. A falcon’s short wings!

That’s the answer! What a fool I’ve been! All I need is a tiny little wing, all I need is to fold most of my wings and fly on just the tips alone! Short wings!

He climbed two thousand feet above the black sea, and without a moment for thought of failure and death, he brought his forewings tightly in to his body, left only the narrow swept daggers of his wingtips extended into the wind, and fell into a vertical dive.

The wind was a monster roar at his head. Seventy miles per hour, ninety, a hundred and twenty and faster still. The wing-strain now at a hundred and forty miles per hour wasn’t nearly as hard as it had been before at seventy, and with the faintest twist of his wingtips he eased out of the dive and shot above the waves, a gray cannonball under the moon.

He closed his eyes to slits against the wind and rejoiced. A hundred forty miles per hour! And under control! If I dive from five thousand feet instead of two thousand, I wonder how fast..

His vows of a moment before were forgotten, swept away in that great swift wind. Yet he felt guiltless, breaking the promises he had made himself. Such promises are only for the gulls that accept the ordinary. One who has touched excellence in his learning has no need of that kind of promise.

By sunup, Jonathan Gull was practicing again. From five thousand feet the Fishing boats were specks in the flat blue water, Breakfast Flock was a faint cloud of dust motes, circling.

He was alive, trembling ever so slightly with delight, proud that his fear was under control. Then without ceremony he hugged in his forewings, extended his short, angled wingtips, and plunged direcfly toward the sea. By the time he passed four thousand feet he had reached terminal velocity, the wind was a solid beating wall of sound against which he could move no faster. He was flying now straight down, at two hundred fourteen miles per hour. He swallowed, knowing that if his wings unfolded at that speed he’d be blown into a million tiny shreds of seagull. But the speed was power, and the speed was joy, and the speed was pure beauty.

He began his pullout at a thousand feet, wingtips thudding and blurring in that gigantic wind, the boat and the crowd of gulls tilting and growing meteor-fast, directly in his path.

He couldn’t stop; he didn’t know yet even how to turn at that speed.

Collision would be instant death.

And so he shut his eyes.

It happened that morning, then, just after sunrise, that Jonathan Livingston Seagull fired directly through the center of Breakfast Flock, ticking off two hundred twelve miles per hour, eyes closed, in a great roaring shriek of wind and feathers.

The Gull of Fortune smiled upon him this once, and no one was killed.

By the time he had pulled his beak straight up into the sky he was still scorching along at a hundred and sixty miles per hour. When he had slowed to twenty and stretched his wings again at last, the boat was a crumb on the sea, four thousand feet below.

His thought was triumph. Terminal velocity! A seagull at two hundred fourteen miles per hour! It was a breakthrough, the greatest single moment in the history of the Flock, and in that moment a new age opened for Jonathan Gull. Flying out to his lonely practice area, folding his wings for a dive from eight thousand feet, he set himself at once to discover how to turn.

A single wingtip feather, he found, moved a fraction of an inch, gives a smooth sweeping curve at tremendous speed. Before he learned this, however, he found that moving more than one feather at that speed will spin you like a rifle ball... and Jonathan had flown the first aerobatics of any seagull on earth.

He spared no time that day for talk with other gulls, but flew on past sunset. He discovered the loop, the slow roll, the point roll, the inverted spin, the gull bunt, the pinwheel.

When Jonathan Seagull joined the Flock on the beach, it was full night. He was dizzy and terribly tired. Yet in delight he flew a loop to landing, with a snap roll just before touchdown. When they hear of it, he thought, of the Breakthrough, they’ll be wild with joy. How much more there is now to living! Instead of our drab slogging forth and back to the Fishing boats, there’s a reason to life! We can lift ourselves out of ignorance, we can find ourselves as creatures of excellence and intelligence and skill. We can be free! We can learn to fly!

The years ahead hummed and glowed with promise.

The gulls were flocked into the Council Gathering when he landed, and apparently had been so flocked for some time. They were, in fact, waiting.

“Jonathan Livingston Seagull! Stand to Center!” The Elder’s words sounded in a voice of highest ceremony. Stand to Center meant only great shame or great honor. Stand to Center for Honor was the way the gulls’ foremost leaders were marked. Of course, he thought, the Breakfast Flock this morning; they saw the Breakthrough! But I want no honors. I have no wish to be leader. I want only to share what I’ve found, to show those horizons out ahead for us all.

He stepped forward.

“Jonathan Livingston Seagull,” said the Elder, “Stand to Center for Shame in the sight of your fellow gulls!”

It felt like being hit with a board. His knees went weak, his feathers sagged, there was roaring in his ears.

Centered for shame? Impossible! The Breakthrough! They can’t understand! They’re wrong, they’re wrong!

“... for his reckless irresponsibility “ the solemn voice intoned, “violating the dignity and tradition of the Gull  Family...”

To be centered for shame meant that he would be cast out of gull society, banished to a solitary life on the Far Cliffs.

“... one day Jonathan Livingston Seagull, you shall learn that irresponsibility does not pay. life is the unknown and the unknowable, except that we are put into this world to eat, to stay alive as long as we possibly can.”

A seagull never speaks back to the Council Flock, but it was Jonathan’s voice raised. “Irresponsibility? My brothers!” he cried. “Who is more responsible than a gull who finds and follows a meaning, a higher purpose for life? For a thousand years we have scrabbled after fish heads, but now we have a reason to live - to learn, to discover, to be free! Give me one chance, let me show you what I’ve found...”

The Flock might as well have been stone.

“The Brotherhood is broken,” the gulls intoned together, and with one accord they solemnly closed their ears and turned their backs upon him.

Jonathan Seagull spent the rest of his days alone, but he flew way out beyond the Far Cliffs. His one sorrow was not solitude, it was that other gulls refused to believe the glory of flight that awaited them; they refused to open their eyes and see. He learned more each day. He learned that a streamlined high-speed dive could bring him to find the rare and tasty fish that schooled ten feet below the surface of the ocean: he no longer needed Fishing boats and stale bread for survival. He learned to sleep in the air, setting a course at night across the offshore wind, covering a hundred miles from sunset to sunrise. With the same inner control, he flew through heavy sea-fogs and climbed above them into dazzling clear skies... in the very times when every other gull stood on the ground, knowing nothing but mist and rain. He learned to ride the high winds far inland, to dine there on delicate insects.

What he had once hoped for the Flock, he now gained for himself alone; he learned to fly, and was not sorry for the price that he had paid. Jonathan Seagull discovered that boredom and fear and anger are the reasons that a gull’s life is so short, and with these gone from his thought, he lived a long fine life indeed.

They came in the evening, then, and found Jonathan gliding peaceful and alone through his beloved sky. The two gulls that appeared at his wings were pure as starlight, and the glow from them was gentle and friendly in the high night air. But most lovely of all was the skill with which they flew, their wingtips moving a precise and constant inch from his own.

Without a word, Jonathan put them to his test, a test that no gull had ever passed. He twisted his wings, slowed to a single mile per hour above stall. The two radiant birds slowed with him, smoothly, locked in  position. They knew about slow flying.

He folded his wings, rolled and dropped in a dive to a hundred ninety miles per hour. They dropped with him, streaking down in flawless formation.

At last he turned that speed straight up into a long vertical slow-roll. They rolled with him, smiling.

He recovered to level flight and was quiet for a time before he spoke. “Very well,” he said, “who are you?”

“We’re from your Flock, Jonathan. We are your brothers.” The words were strong and calm. “We’ve come to take you higher, to take you Home.”

“Home I have none. Flock I have none. I am Outcast. And we fly now at the peak of the Great Mountain Wind. Beyond a few hundred feet, I can lift this old body no higher.”

“But you can Jonathan. For you have learned. One school is finished, and the time has come for another to begin.”

As it had shined across him all his life, so understanding lighted that moment for Jonathan Seagull. They were right. He could fly higher, and it was time to go Home.

He gave one last look across the sky, across that magnificent silver land where he had learned so much.

“I’m ready “ he said at last.

And Jonathan Livingston Seagull rose with the two starbright gulls to disappear into a perfect dark sky..

TOP

谢谢老师的数据和天书,老师辛苦了。等鼠宝宝晚上回来再读。.

TOP

发新话题